The United Church of Canada (UCC) has compiled its stats for 2022. They show little negative effect of Covid and even some real bounce back.
For those outside of Canada, the UCC is Canada’s most numerous protestant denomination. It was formed almost 100 years ago from the Congregationalist, Methodist, and Presbyterian Churches and more recently the Brethren. It is a liberal protestant Church and is thus very alike the Anglican Church of Canada in many ways. The UCC numbers are in a very similar trajectory to the ACC.
No news is good news
A cursory look at the graph above would not lead one to think that the UCC had been through a pandemic. Yes, the two membership measures – Members and donor households – are in decline. But that decline is a fairly consistent straight line over the last eight years. In fact it is continuing the same pattern from the last 30 years and more.
This is definitely a case of “No news is good news”. Why? Because the data I am seeing from other liberal protestant churches shows a significant dip through Covid. And I mean a change in membership decline from 2.5% per year to 10% through Covid , and average attendance dropped by around 20% even after the “bounce back” (See my report on TEC data).
And the UCC data shows an actual bounce back. Their 2021 average attendance increased back to almost the level in 2018. That is encouraging for them. What is also encouraging – for them and for the rest of us – is that the rate of decline of ASA looks like it is back to its pre-pandemic level.
How is that encouraging? There are broadly three options for post-pandemic Church metrics. The “Bounce back better” option says we will get back to where we were before Covid. The “Step Down” option says we will continue steady decline from the new low we have reached after Covid. That is my best bet on what we will be facing over the next 5 years. The “Dead cat bounce” option is the most challenging one. This says our rate of decline after Covid will remain high. People have disconnected from the churches. This option is what Jeff Walton sees in the TEC data (see blog on TEC data).
What the UCC stats are showing is the first option – Bouncing back up after Covid to their previous rate of decline. It means they can keep expecting substantial time (well 20 years plus) to work out the way forward. The other two options give a significant shortening of the time line!
“Occasional offices” bounce back
The picture above is more typical of the Covid Church stats – but still somewhat encouraging. You can see the precipitous decline of Baptisms, Marriages and Funerals up to the pandemic. They are indicative of a Church with a high proportion of seniors, and a culture in which traditional Church based rites of passage are no longer required. Then comes Covid, and the number of these offices drops. To me, it is surprising how many baptisms and weddings the UCC did manage to have in 2020. But as we emerge from the pandemic, the numbers of these service should recover somewhat. People who had to hold back from baptisms and weddings were able to hold their celebrations. And that has continued into 2022.
Again, this is the interesting point. There was no a quick rush to get the baptisms and weddings over followed by a return to decline. Instead, the services have gone up… again. Maybe the drop will be in the current year, 2023, when we are truly (!) post-pandemic.
The funerals graph is also interesting. Is it showing a large number of church people who got through Covid and then ran out of steam? Or is it showing a re-engagement with Church as the place to celebrate the life of someone who has departed.
The post-pandemic data
One thing which should not be overlooked in the data is the lack of a regional perspective. Canada, as it is often said, is a big Country – 5 1/2 time zones big. There were very significant regional variations in the experience of Covid from the “Atlantic Bubble” thro Ford’s Ontario to Dr Bonnie’s BC. In some areas Churches were open for most of the time, in others they were repeatedly shut. That makes a difference to the post-pandemic picture as well as the Covid experience. Add the regional variations in church density and population into that mix and there is much need for regional perspective
All of this makes the prospect of next years (2023) data more interesting. Covid continues to be the single most significant event in the recent history of the Church. Covid changed how we operated and gave us new options. It was a challenging and creative time to be in ministry. Post-pandemic is the most interesting time to be looking at Church Statistics for a long time.
